NBA Playoffs: What Are the Best Chet Holmgren Prop Bets for Game 3 vs. Nuggets?

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling into Game 3 of their second-round series with the Denver Nuggets holding a strong 2-0 lead. One player who continues to make a quiet but crucial impact is rookie big man Chet Holmgren. While he’s not lighting up the scoreboard like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren’s doing a little bit of everything — and savvy bettors are taking notice.

With tip-off just around the corner, let’s take a look at the most interesting Chet Holmgren prop bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of Friday night’s matchup at Ball Arena.

Should You Bet the Over on Holmgren’s Points?

Chet’s points prop is set at 15.5, which might seem tempting after his 15-point performance in Game 2. But tread carefully here.

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Holmgren has scored fewer than 16 points in five straight games against the Nuggets this season. The only time he crossed that line was way back on October 24, when he dropped 25 points in their first meeting of the year. Since then? Jokic and Denver’s defensive schemes have made life harder for him inside.

So while the number looks reachable, betting the under on 15.5 points at -125 odds might be the safer play tonight — especially with Shai continuing to carry most of the scoring load.

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Is the 3-Point Prop the Smart Bet Tonight?

This might be where the real value is hiding.

Holmgren’s over 1.5 three-pointers made is listed at +114, and that’s the prop worth watching. He’s hit two or more threes in four of six playoff games so far, shooting a scorching 40.6% from deep this postseason.

What makes this even more attractive is Denver’s defensive coverage. With Nikola Jokic often playing drop coverage, Holmgren is finding plenty of space at the top of the arc. He’s more comfortable stepping out than banging inside, and the Thunder’s spacing allows him to float around the perimeter and pick his spots.

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Given how the Nuggets guard ball screens, Holmgren should get at least a few clean looks from downtown. That +114 payout is looking more and more like a steal.

Can Holmgren Hit His PTS + REB + AST Line?

DraftKings has his points + rebounds + assists line at 25.5. While Holmgren does offer a balanced stat line each game, this number feels a little tight.

He’s averaging:

• 16.8 points
• 8.0 rebounds
• 1.2 assists

That totals to 26.0, which just barely clears the line. If you believe he’ll hit his average, the over makes sense. But if you’re unsure about his scoring (especially considering the points history vs. Denver), this may be a stay-away line.

What About His Defensive Stats?

Holmgren’s defensive presence has been one of the keys to OKC’s postseason run. He averages 3.8 combined steals and blocks per game, also known as “stocks” in fantasy and betting circles.

While no current line has been highlighted for stocks on DraftKings, it’s worth watching if one becomes available. Holmgren’s length and timing make him a threat to swat shots and poke balls loose in every matchup. His defensive stats could be another smart angle if you’re looking beyond the standard categories.