The doors of the Sistine Chapel are now shut tight. Inside, 138 cardinals under the age of 80 are deep in prayer and deliberation. They’re part of a centuries-old tradition: choosing the next Pope of the Catholic Church.

It’s a sacred process cloaked in secrecy. But outside the chapel, the world is buzzing with names — favorites, dark horses, and even long shots. This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable conclaves in modern history.

Who Are the Frontrunners to Succeed Pope Francis?

Four cardinals have emerged as early favorites:

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• Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The Vatican Secretary of State, known as a diplomatic moderate with wide support.
• Cardinal Peter Erdo: A Hungarian conservative, deeply devoted to traditional Church teachings and Marian theology.
• Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline: The Archbishop of Marseille, seen as Pope Francis’ spiritual successor and a key voice for liberal reforms.
• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa: The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, a younger, bold candidate whose work in the Holy Land has earned global respect.

These are the leading names, but this conclave is anything but decided.

Could a “Dark Horse” Candidate Win the Papacy?

Yes, and it’s happened many times before. History tells us that some of the most impactful popes weren’t frontrunners at all.

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Here are several others who are being seriously discussed:

• Cardinal Robert Prevost: An American Vatican insider and expert in canon law, he’s emerging as a compromise candidate among progressives and moderates.
• Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero: Based in Morocco but with European and South American roots, he appeals to a broad international coalition.
• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: A “Francis-style” bishop from Italy known for peace diplomacy and outreach to LGBTQ+ communities.
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: A Filipino liberal who champions inclusion and was once thought to be Pope Francis’ heir.
• Cardinal Mario Grech: A Maltese progressive who supports evolving doctrine and deeper inclusion for LGBTQ+ Catholics.
• Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke: An outspoken traditionalist from the U.S. who fiercely opposes liberal reforms and abortion.
• Cardinal Peter Turkson: From Ghana, Turkson blends left-leaning politics with conservative theology. He’d be the first African pope in centuries.
• Cardinal Robert Sarah: A Guinean cardinal known for his traditionalist views and experience within the Vatican hierarchy.
• Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu: From the DRC, he’s gained admiration for standing up to political power while remaining doctrinally conservative.

Will an Outsider or Veteran Cardinal Surprise Us?

There are many names flying under the radar who might unite a divided conclave:

• Cardinal Angelo Scola: At 83, he’s a veteran Italian cardinal seen as a possible “stop-gap” candidate.
• Cardinal Wim Eijk: The Dutch Archbishop of Utrecht, a medical doctor by training and strong critic of liberal reforms.
• Cardinal Gerhard Müller: A German traditionalist and fierce critic of Pope Francis, known for defending canon law and the Latin Mass.
• Cardinal Reinhard Marx: From Munich, a liberal voice who supported reforms but has lost some influence in recent years.
• Cardinal Christoph Schönborn: Though 80 and ineligible to vote, his respected voice still carries weight.
• Cardinal Marc Ouellet: Canadian and fluent in seven languages, though slowed by legal controversies.
• Cardinal Vincent Nichols: Head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales, a possible compromise choice.
• Cardinal Timothy Radcliffe: A beloved Dominican friar known for spiritual writing, but a longshot.
• Cardinal Arthur Roche: A British reformer who has led Vatican liturgy offices and been close to Pope Francis.
• Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald: Known for interfaith dialogue, especially with Muslims, though now too old to vote.

What Happens During the Conclave?

The cardinals cast four votes per day in the Sistine Chapel. A two-thirds majority — 92 out of 138 — is needed to elect a new pope.

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If no decision is reached, the process continues for up to 20 days. The results are signaled by smoke from the chapel chimney: black smoke for no decision, white smoke when a new pope is chosen.

Could a Pope from Africa or Asia Be Elected?

Absolutely. Many feel it’s time the papacy reflects the Church’s growing strength in the Global South.

• Cardinal Turkson and Cardinal Sarah from Africa are strong contenders.
• Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines would be the first Asian pope and is a favorite of many liberal Catholics.

Their election would be historic — and signal a major shift in the Church’s direction.

Is This the Most Divided Conclave in Years?

It might be. With so many ideological, cultural, and geopolitical divides, no single candidate has overwhelming support.

Even within the powerful “Bergoglian” faction (named after Pope Francis’ surname), there is debate. Will they rally behind someone like Aveline, Zuppi, or Prevost? Or will they make peace with someone more moderate like Parolin?

What Will the Next Pope Face?

The next pope will have enormous challenges:

• Healing a divided global Church
• Addressing declining attendance in the West
• Leading on global crises like war, poverty, and climate change
• Continuing or resisting Pope Francis’ reforms

Whoever walks onto that balcony at St. Peter’s Basilica will set the tone for decades to come.