Exercise Zapad 2025: Why Poland Is Closing Its Border With Belarus

Poland will close all crossings with Belarus at midnight on Thursday as Russian and Belarusian forces prepare to launch large-scale military exercises on NATO’s eastern doorstep. Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed the decision during a government meeting, citing “national security reasons” and a direct threat to Polish citizens.

The drills, known as Zapad-2025, begin Friday and will take place in Belarus and western Russia. Traditionally held every few years, the Zapad manoeuvres are among the most significant events in Russia’s military calendar. This year, contingents from more than 20 countries, including India, Iran, and China, are expected to join.

Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski stressed the border would only reopen once the government was convinced the threat had passed. With NATO already wary of Russia’s use of military exercises as cover for real operations, Poland’s precaution reflects the gravity of the situation.

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NATO Concerns Over Russian Drills

The Zapad series has long been a flashpoint between Russia and NATO. While Moscow claims they are defensive exercises, Western governments have often accused Russia of underreporting troop numbers to bypass OSCE monitoring rules.

This year’s drills are no different. NATO officials warn Zapad-2025 could involve upwards of 200,000 personnel when support elements are included. That scale is seen as a potential rehearsal for hybrid or conventional military actions near NATO territory.

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Adding to concerns, Zapad exercises in the past have included scenarios with tactical nuclear weapons. The Belarusian defence ministry has confirmed that this year’s edition will feature nuclear-related drills and tests of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile system. Lithuania has already reinforced its border with Belarus, and NATO forces are conducting parallel drills in Poland and Lithuania to deter escalation.

Diplomatic Fallout With Minsk

Poland’s decision to shut its border has sparked immediate backlash from Belarus. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry summoned Poland’s chargé d’affaires, calling the move “an abuse of its geographical position” and accusing Warsaw of hiding its true intentions.

Belarusian state media reported that authorities had arrested a Polish national accused of espionage linked to the Zapad drills. Tensions between the two neighbors have steadily risen since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Poland taking a leading role in NATO’s eastern defense posture.

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Prime Minister Tusk said Polish security services had recently arrested a Belarusian spy and would expel a Belarusian diplomat who “supported aggressive actions against Poland.” He credited intelligence cooperation with the Czech Republic and Romania for the breakthrough.

Regional Escalation Risks

The ripple effects of Zapad-2025 are being felt beyond Poland and Belarus. The Czech Republic expelled a Belarusian diplomat on espionage charges, while Romania confirmed an investigation into a former Moldovan intelligence chief for treason linked to the drills.

France, though not directly involved in Zapad tensions, made headlines of its own as President Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister, underscoring how European politics remain dynamic amid mounting security risks.

NATO leaders say the timing, scale, and nuclear elements of Zapad-2025 highlight Moscow’s readiness to escalate. For Poland and its allies, closing borders and reinforcing defenses is not just symbolic—it is a direct response to the possibility of sudden moves by Russia or Belarus under the guise of military exercises.

What Comes Next

The Zapad exercises are scheduled to last two weeks, but their impact will likely extend far longer. For Poland, the closure of the Belarus border underscores its role as NATO’s frontline state. For Russia and Belarus, the drills send a message of unity and deterrence toward the West.

The key question is whether Zapad-2025 remains a show of force or becomes a prelude to something more destabilizing. NATO’s simultaneous exercises in the region suggest it is preparing for either outcome.

For now, the border between Poland and Belarus stands as both a literal and symbolic dividing line, marking the sharpest point of tension between Russia’s military ambitions and NATO’s determination to contain them.